falsifiability

Philosopher Karl Popper claimed that what distinguished science was that its hypotheses are constructed to be falsifiable by experiment. Physicist Wolfgang Pauli once responded, when asked about an ill-posed theory, that it was “not even wrong”.

Physicist Stanislaw Ulam once challenged Nobel economist Paul Samuelson to “name me one proposition in all of the social sciences which is both true and non-trivial.” After several years, Samuelson answered with David Ricardo’s theory of comparative advantage. “That it is logically true need not be argued before a mathematician; that is is not trivial is attested by the thousands of important and intelligent men who have never been able to grasp the doctrine for themselves or to believe it after it was explained to them.” This theory is the bedrock of free trade ideology. Later, James K. Galbraith stated that “free trade has attained the status of a god” and that ” … none of the world’s most successful trading regions, including Japan, Korea, Taiwan, and now mainland China, reached their current status by adopting neoliberal trading rules.” Despite these falsifications, comparative advantage lives on in elementary economic theory.

Five solae

The Protestant Reformation marked a renaissance of the Sophist philosophical attitude, that led to Jean-Jacques Rousseau, and thence to the humanist religious movement that has developed over the past three hundred years.

The key precepts of the Protestant Reformation, as distinguished from the Catholic tradition, are:

Sola scriptura (“by Scripture alone”): that Scripture overrides tradition and priestly interpretation, which led to biblical literalism and later scholarly hermeneutic interpretation of historical texts

Sola fide (“by faith alone”): by faith, irrespective of works, God may justify saving you. Faith later became theory.

Sola gratia (“by grace alone”) by God’s grace, not by any merit, you may be saved. Society later replaced God, while the subordination of individual agency became

Solo Christo (“through Christ alone”) by Christ alone, without any priestly intermediary.

Soli Deo gloria (“glory to God alone”): a rejection of the church as an institution, and of an exalted class of priests, saints, and angels, as a kind of idolatry (or later, ‘fetishizing’) that errantly diverts worship of God alone.

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Fourth Quadrant

Nassim Nicholas Taleb describes limits to what kinds of systems we can apply statistical tools to, especially with respect to distribution properties. Distributions that are “thin-tailed”–having known variances, known sampling properties, ergodic properties–then statistical tools work well. Those systems in which unknown properties may exist are subject to the emergence of a “Black Swan”–an event that retrospectively reveals that you did not actually have a correct model of the system’s statistical properties to start with.

Taleb has summarized these ideas into a four-quadrant classification of domains: those with thin-tailed and those with heavy or unknown tails, and those with simple and complex payoffs. The fourth quadrant is, unfortunately, where most real-world systems exist, and our ability to reduce them to tractable models of the other three domains is limited outside of idealized Gaussian models.

Friedrich Nietzsche

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